The Bracket Strategy

In the US we've got this thing that happens every March. It's the end-of-the-year college basketball event where the top 68 teams play in a large bracket-style tournament that we call March Madness. The games started last Thursday

The tradition in my home (and in offices, friend circles, religious groups, knitting clubs, neighborhood association, etc) is to try to predict the results of all 63 tournament games by filling out a bracket before the games start.

My family and I filled out a bracket - (mine's in terrible shape if you wanted to know - thanks for asking).

Filling out my NCAA bracket reminded me of how many organizations approach decision-making.

More specifically, how the bias is so insidious. Without data, you tend to make decisions following one of these methods:

• Nostalgia: "I have amazing memories of this team from the past. They had a great run once in the tornament - I am sure they can do it again". E.g. Loyola Chicago, VCU, Saint Peter's Peacocks, etc.

• Personal Anecdote: "My old roommate/co-worker/mother-in-law/barber/baby-sitter went to school." This clearly makes them a great pick!

• Completely Arbitrary (Mascot style): "No way a Tiger is losing to a Jayhawk". "Does anyone actually know what a Bonnie, Zips, Hokie or Shocker is?)

• Quasi-Statistical: "I am just going to pick the higher seed all the time and then flip a coin the final four (or use one of the above methods to decide the final 3 games)"

• Trust your gut: "I just got a feeling about this team. There's a cinderella team every year - might as well be these guys right?"

If you filled out a bracket what was your strategy? And more importantly, does your organization make decisions this way?

I'm here

Sawyer

from ​The Data Shop